Energy Market Trend Analysis 
2015 - 2025

E3 Energy – Wholesale Market Trend Analysis Report – 2015 to 2025 – Procurement Optimised

 

This report has been created to provide you with detailed insights into UK energy wholesale market trends since 2015, offering guidance on procurement optimisation strategies. The analysis is based on year-ahead monthly averages (with pp/kWh data available from 2015–2025 in the underlying dataset).

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Key Yearly Observations

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2014–2018: A period of relatively stable and decreasing prices

• 2014 begins with higher prices in January, trending lower into late 2015 and 2016.

• Seasonal patterns remain consistent; however, overall prices decrease between 2014 and 2016.

• Increases are observed in 2017 and 2018, driven by factors such as the “Beast from the East,” rising oil prices, the 2016 Brexit referendum, and the weakening of the British pound.

 

2019–2020: A period of price volatility followed by a sharp decline

• 2019 was marked by significant unpredictability, driven by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of the first lockdown in March 2020.

• 2020 experiences a significant price drop across most months, reflecting market shocks linked to reduced demand and oversupply caused by the pandemic’s economic impact.

 

2021–2023: A sharp rise in prices, indicating heightened market instability

• Prices began climbing significantly in August 2021. One of the main factors was that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline faced various complexities and experienced major reductions in flows, which impacted the energy markets. This trend continued into 2022 with Nord Stream 2, as Germany’s energy regulator suspended its approval. Nord Stream 2 ultimately filed for bankruptcy on 1 March 2022.

• The increases continued month-on-month from August 2021 through to November 2022, with the market price peaking at its highest-ever level in August 2022 in the UK energy market.

• Within the dataset, the August 2022 peak is clearly evidenced at approximately 18.558 pp/kWh (gas) and 52.604 pp/kWh (electricity).

• Some of the main contributing factors include the invasion of Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the Middle East, the explosion at the Freeport LNG plant in Texas, and the energy crisis, which exacerbated global supply and demand concerns.

 

2024: A stabilisation trend emerges, though prices remain above pre-2021 COVID-19 levels

• From December 2023, prices begin to stabilise, driven by increased global efforts to enhance gas storage for energy security, robust winter supply, and renewed gas agreements to meet European demand.

• By August 2024, prices start to rise again due to geopolitical events and the seasonal increase in demand as winter approaches across European countries.

 

2025: Broad stability, with a modest repricing in electricity and a clearer seasonal profile

Using the dataset’s yearly averages (pp/kWh):

• Gas (2025): 3.101 pp/kWh (broadly flat vs 2024: 3.120 pp/kWh, marginally lower by 0.019 pp/kWh, ~-0.6%)

• Electricity (2025): 8.134 pp/kWh (modestly higher vs 2024: 7.888 pp/kWh, up by 0.246 pp/kWh, ~+3.1%)

 

2025 also displays a distinct within-year pattern:

• Gas 2025 range: 2.298 pp/kWh (Dec – lowest month) to 4.112 pp/kWh (Feb – highest month)

• Electricity 2025 range: 7.146 pp/kWh (Dec – lowest month) to 9.617 pp/kWh (Feb – highest month)

 

This indicates a pronounced winter premium early in the year, followed by progressive easing into Q4. Importantly, while markets stabilised compared with crisis conditions, 2025 price levels remain materially above pre-2021 norms when benchmarked against 2015–2020 averages in the same dataset.

 

E3 Energy Conclusion and Advice

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The energy wholesale markets exhibit strong seasonal patterns, cyclical trends, and periods of extreme volatility, which have been clearly identified since 2015. The primary drivers of these fluctuations are geopolitical events that disrupt global supply and demand dynamics. Furthermore, seasonal weather patterns are evident in the data, enabling us to provide advice on optimising the timing of your portfolio’s future tendering activities.

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In conclusion, based on the data and seasonal trends observed over the last decade, our team of energy market specialists consistently achieves the best results through structured market cost tendering exercises. These must be conducted at least 10–12 months in advance. This approach ensures that wholesale market movements are effectively benchmarked and optimised, allowing procurement to be secured at the lowest market points for maximum portfolio cost efficiency.

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Within the energy wholesale market, consumers can capitalise on seasonal price dips only by employing forward purchasing strategies supported by accurate and live market tendering benchmarks through detailed analysis. This method provides the opportunity to secure optimal pricing through careful timing, strategic procurement planning, and issuing tenders as part of a comprehensive energy procurement strategy.

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Across the most recent five-year window in the dataset (2021–2025), Q1 and Q2 continue to present the most consistently advantageous opportunity set relative to Q3 and Q4, although 2025 also demonstrates that meaningful opportunities can emerge later in the year as market risk premia compress. For this reason, we recommend combining early tendering discipline with structured benchmarking to ensure that procurement decisions remain evidence-led rather than calendar-led.

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Contact us today for a comprehensive assessment of your energy requirements. Our expert team will provide professional advice on the optimal timing for your upcoming energy renewals in 2026 and 2027. At E3 Energy, we offer detailed portfolio reports and insights into forward wholesale market prices, sourced from our accredited energy suppliers across the UK marketplace. This ensures your portfolio benefits from full access to the UK’s leading energy providers.

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